As Governor Joe Lombardo (R) entered the St. George & St. Dimitrie Romanian Orthodox Church in Las Vegas on a brisk autumn afternoon, he was greeted with a small paper cup filled with țuică—a traditional Romanian plum brandy. The potent spirit shocked his senses, serving as a festive greeting to warm the atmosphere. Lia Roberts, president of the parish council and honorary consul for the Romanian Consulate, raised her glass in a toast of "noroc," meaning good luck in Romanian, as she welcomed him into the community.
Dressed in a dark suit jacket and dark blue jeans adorned with a Nevada-shaped lapel pin, Lombardo embraced churchgoers, sharing a meal that celebrated the namesake of their church, Saint Dimitrie. This visit, however, was not merely a social call; it came just nine days before the highly anticipated Election Day, underscoring the critical nature of the moment for Lombardo's reelection campaign.
Speaking briefly to attendees, the governor emphasized the importance of voting in Nevada, particularly in a midterm election where a presidential candidate is not on the ballot, often leading to voter apathy. "Your vote matters in the state of Nevada," Lombardo remarked. "When there isn't a president on the ballot, people tend to be a little apathetic and they don't show up. We gotta change that." His remarks encapsulated the pressing challenge he faces in one of the nation's closest gubernatorial races.
Despite Lombardo's significant fundraising and advertising edge, the political landscape has shifted in favor of his opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford (D). Ford's campaign has gained momentum as voters become increasingly dissatisfied with Republicans amid rising costs and President Donald Trump's (R) declining popularity. Prediction markets now show improving odds for Ford, particularly following a substantial late surge in advertising support from national Democratic organizations.
While Lombardo continues to receive support from Republican super PACs, funding has withdrawn from down-ballot races in Southern Nevada, raising concerns about the overall strength of the Republican ticket this election cycle. Nevertheless, Lombardo maintains a favorable rating that remains significantly higher than that of Trump.
The question looms: Will Lombardo emerge as the last Republican standing on Election Day? Historical precedents suggest varied outcomes. For instance, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) won reelection in 2022 despite challenging political conditions, while former Governor Jim Gibbons (R) triumphed during the 2006 midterms, albeit under different circumstances than those faced today.
In the final week leading up to the election, Lombardo's focus has been distinctly local. His itinerary included visits to a Baptist church, interviews with conservative media, and his recent stop at the Romanian Orthodox Church, as well as attending the groundbreaking of Nevada's first stand-alone children's hospital. He emphasized the importance of connecting directly with faith-based and community groups.
"I found out early on, as a sheriff, that understanding the community is essential, especially for young officers who may lack that insight," Lombardo shared during a canvassing event in Reno. "We are only as successful as the trust we build with the community." However, these local engagements have been largely under reported, with only selected events being publicized to the media. In contrast, Ford has been proactive, holding multiple press conferences each week and leveraging social media to engage voters, often campaigning alongside prominent figures like former Vice President Kamala Harris and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Ford has not shied away from nationalizing the race, often linking Lombardo to Trump while the incumbent has adopted a strategy aimed at presenting himself as a moderate candidate. Lombardo's approach involves focusing on his record and acknowledging the economic hardships faced by Nevadans without minimizing the challenges presented by Ford's campaign.
"We still have a significant amount of work to be done. I need another four years to finish it," Lombardo stated at the Romanian Orthodox Church, encapsulating his appeal for continued support from voters.
The irony of the 2026 election is evident in Ford's strategy, which closely mirrors the tactics Lombardo employed when he successfully campaigned against former Governor Steve Sisolak (D) in 2022. Lombardo's strategy focused on linking Sisolak to President Joe Biden, emphasizing issues such as inflation and rising costs. Despite the state's economic indicators reflecting job growth and declining unemployment rates, affordability remains a significant concern for voters.
Polling from Emerson College indicates that a substantial plurality of Nevadans (43 percent) view the economy as their top priority. The state's residents are grappling with rising gas prices and a persistent housing crisis, issues that Ford has capitalized on throughout his campaign. Lombardo's own admission regarding inflation rates—"I can't control that"—demonstrates the pressure he faces regarding economic discontent among Nevadans.
Political analysts note that the dynamics of this race are heavily influenced by perceptions of Trump's presidency and its impact on Republican candidates. Rebecca Gill, a political science expert at UNLV, argues that Lombardo's challenge is compounded by the association voters have with Trump when they consider Republican candidates.
In 2022, Sisolak faced challenges not only from rising costs but also from public discontent over his administration's COVID-19 response. In contrast, Lombardo's position lacks the same contentious policies that may define a candidate's tenure. Jeremy Gelman, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno, argues that the political climate this cycle poses challenges for Republicans similar to those Democrats faced previously.
Lombardo believes that Nevadans distinguish between federal and state government roles. He emphasized his intent to focus on how he can influence policies within the state, stating, "I'm more concerned about what influence I could have within the boundaries of our state." He highlighted the need for state governments to build upon federal programs while adapting to the unique needs of their constituents.
The outcome of this election will rely heavily on voters like Monique Grant, a 47-year-old nonpartisan voter who is still undecided. Attending the Nevada Day Parade, she expressed frustration over Trump’s perceived corruption. Similarly, Erik Charm, a right-leaning voter, stated that while he acknowledges both the positive and negative aspects of Trump’s presidency, his vote for Lombardo is informed by his experience as sheriff.
Lombardo stated that he is hearing significant concerns about affordability from voters and is committed to highlighting his achievements as governor while detailing his vision for a second term. He expressed a desire to focus on the future rather than the next election, emphasizing the importance of successfully navigating the remaining days of his campaign: "Not at this point. What I'm interested in right now is getting across the finish line successfully here in four or five days."
At the groundbreaking ceremony for Nevada's first children's hospital, Lombardo took a moment to reflect on the substantive nature of the event. The gathering was attended by influential lobbyists and lawmakers, emphasizing the importance of the occasion. Lombardo's campaign has positioned the establishment of this hospital as a significant accomplishment, featured prominently in his campaign advertisements.
The event contrasted sharply with his visit to the Romanian church, yet Lombardo's style remained consistent—direct and straightforward. As the ceremony unfolded, the audience responded warmly to his humor, and Lombardo's instincts as a former law enforcement officer surfaced when he jokingly glanced around during fireworks, questioning whether there had been a shooting.
The touching stories shared about children battling cancer resonated with those in attendance, highlighting the pressing need for the hospital. Lombardo's familial connection to healthcare challenges was palpable; his grandson had previously faced a medical emergency that local facilities were unable to address adequately. This personal stake in healthcare could influence voter perceptions of his leadership.
How voters perceive these emotionally charged moments will be crucial in determining whether Lombardo secures another term. His campaign has tirelessly promoted his record, highlighting Nevada's impressive job growth statistics and initiatives designed to address housing issues. Additionally, he has garnered support from some Democrats, a strategy aimed at broadening his appeal in a diverse electorate.
With over $76 million spent on advertising during this election cycle, the effectiveness of these strategies is already under scrutiny. Gill from UNLV noted that the candidates have "bloodied each other up a little bit," indicating a contentious race that, while heated, may have insulated Lombardo from some broader Republican shortcomings due to the absence of a Senate or presidential race.
Across the Nevada Day parade, attendees expressed a preference for positive advertisements that focus on candidates' qualifications over negative ads that attack their opponents. Voter sentiment suggests a desire for a shift in campaign messaging. As Charm stated, "Tell me why you're a good candidate, OK?" emphasizing the necessity for candidates to articulate their strengths rather than dwell on their opponents' weaknesses.
Gill pointed out that Lombardo faces a delicate balance, appealing to a pro-Trump primary audience while also reaching out to moderate voters who disapprove of the former president. Despite the challenges, Lombardo's performance has exceeded expectations in comparison to the broader Republican landscape.
However, the governor's public speaking skills remain a concern; past gaffes during high-profile events have raised questions about his ability to resonate with larger crowds. At an August rally, Lombardo made headlines for remarks defending Trump while ignoring the growing dissent against the former president among the electorate. He has focused his campaign strategy on smaller gatherings, roundtable discussions, and controlled media appearances where he can effectively convey his campaign messages.
Ultimately, the upcoming election represents a pivotal moment for both Joe Lombardo and Aaron Ford, encapsulating the broader political dynamics at play in Nevada as voters grapple with economic concerns and their perceptions of party leadership. As the final countdown to Election Day continues, the candidates will endeavor to connect with constituents and address the pressing issues that influence voter decisions.
Source: The Nevada Independent
Illustration photo: Michael Vadon / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
